Here’s a look back at a piece from last January, with stuff that’s highly suggestive of today’s headlines. It touches on Canada. It zeroes in on Venezuela, in the wake of Trump’s now-quaint invasion of that poor abused country. It then moves on to things like how the military reacts to stupid orders from stupid people.
The only revision needed is that the breakeven oil price of $82/barrel was deemed a far-off fantasy then, back when the price of crude was $58. Now, at $117, Trump is pretending Venezuelan oil is the magic bullet that solves all the world’s energy needs. Spoiler alert, it isn't. The timeline for restoring Venezuela’s petroleum infrastructure remains at least ten years, and still makes no economic sense to anyone but Trump.
When I wrote this, little did I know that what was really bad then would turn spectacularly worse, and no less stupid, soon enough.
Turns out, one of the hardest parts of watching my country descend deeper and deeper into darkness is the sheer embarrassment of it all. We’ve been reduced to a unique blend of stupidity and malevolence, and the rest of the civilized world doesn’t know whether to laugh at us or cry. Neither do I.
My Canadian cousins and friends have real reason to fear the deranged impulses of a monster acting in the name of my country — and by extension, me — and I’m powerless to help them. I can tell them it’s ludicrous to think Trump would invade Canada, but do I really believe that? America is behaving like a playground bully with a nuclear arsenal, so I don’t know what I believe anymore.
The Venezuela thing is mind-blowing on many levels, but I think it’s helpful to see it, not so much for what it is, as for what it’s not.
Most of all, it’s not about oil. No matter how much bluster Trump brings to the subject, Venezuelan oil is not something the energy industry is clamoring for. It’s too thick, it’s too expensive to process, and it doesn’t break even until the world price reaches $82 a barrel. The current price is around $58, and it’s not expected to go up much in the near future.
Beyond that, Venezuela’s pumping and refining infrastructure is falling apart, and needs roughly $100 billion in upgrades. That’s a lot of money to invest in a country with a crippled economy, an unstable government, and a history of nationalizing oil assets.
Best-case scenario, it would take ten years to restore Venezuela’s oil industry, and by then the entire petroleum era could be over. Trump might strong-arm a few oil executives into coughing up a few billion, but it won’t be because they think it’s a good idea.
That’s not stopping Trump from trying. A few days ago, he called his petro-buddies to the White House, and in true huckster form, he promised them such a deal on Venezuelan oil as you wouldn’t believe! Thicker than peanut butter! Totally unmarketable! But it’s an absolute steal at $100 billion! A steal like you’ve never seen! Many people say it’s the biggest steal ever! Major credit cards accepted.
Yes, there are oil magnates — Paul Singer, for example, who bought Chevron just in time to pick up an extra billion he doesn’t need — who will make a shitload from this disaster. But it will be more from stock manipulation and various financial maneuvers than from actual barrels in an actual marketplace.
So no, the invasion is not about oil. Nor is it about drugs. Maduro was indeed involved in drug trafficking, but only as a link in the cocaine route from Colombia to Europe. Venezuela’s impact on the U.S. drug market is negligible, and does not involve fentanyl. Or unarmed fishing vessels.
So why the invasion?
The answer, I’m afraid, comes down to bullying. It’s about grownups who like to blow things up and kill people for fun and profit. It’s not 3D chess. It’s not world domination. There’s no discernible plan beyond dick-waving and intimidation.
Which is not to say those of us with especially dirty minds can’t imagine something darker. We have no idea how the invasion will play out on the ground, but at some point, the Hegseths and Millers might see this as an opportunity to get the military comfortable with shooting civilians. Caracas could end up being a training ground for the invasion of, say, Chicago or New York.
But with all the vapid punditry surrounding the Venezuela fiasco, the one story we’re not getting so much as a whiff of is the military’s reaction to what they’re being asked to do.
It’s a question that affects everyone in the armed forces, from the high command to the lowliest grunt. We already know of one admiral who resigned, apparently in connection with the sinking of the aforementioned fishing vessels. We already know of the six Democratic veterans who went on record to warn military personnel about their obligation to reject illegal orders.
Everyone will be under tremendous pressure to do the wrong thing. So the question becomes how much wrong are they willing to do before the slope gets too slippery?
The military always has a handful of guys — yes, they’re always guys — who are there because they get to blow things up and kill people. To them, that’s what economists call psychic income. But I believe that most of the military, officers and enlisted alike, take this democracy stuff fairly seriously.
Most professional soldiers will understand what’s happening. They might cross over to the dark side — some might even go there willingly — but they’ll be under no illusions about what they’re doing. They’ll know what a war crime is before they commit one, and they’ll be aware of the consequences they could face down the road, in some less criminal administration.
So will they turn their guns on fellow citizens? That’s always been hard to imagine, but the murder of Renee Nicole Good in Minnesota leaves that question uncomfortably open.
Still, it’s somewhat encouraging to know that if — or when — American troops are deployed on American soil, they will face an unrelenting barrage of smartphones. Every move they make will be recorded, both for posterity and for evidence.
Last week in this space, I threw a lot of shade on smartphones, and rightly so. I blamed them for the dumbing down of our populace, and I’ll stand by that.
But at the same time, smartphones are playing a pivotal role in resisting the bullies. The videos they so universally enable might just be the worst thing that has ever happened to fascist propaganda.
When Good was killed, the usual ghouls — Noem, Vance, Fox pundits, Trump himself — were quick to jump in with the usual lies. Such was their sense of impunity that they didn’t even bother to check on the actual facts. Unfortunately for them, those facts — verified in a dozen videos — ensured that no amount of bullshit spin would gain traction with any but the most brain-dead MAGA zombies. And even they will have a hard time denying their own eyes.
As the ICE raids grow more brazen, and as the resistance to them grows more organized, much of that resistance will be people bearing witness by shooting video. I expect the same thing will be happening in Venezuela, in Iran, and in any country where bullies have the upper hand.
Because if there’s one thing we’ve learned — ever since the George Floyd murder five years ago — it’s that the best thing you can do with bullies is put them on camera.
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