The Tourism Slump Isn’t Just About Tourism

Not enough is being said about ripple effects.

We still haven't felt the real fallout from the destructive policies and harebrained leadership we are currently stuck with. The effects have yet to fully ripple.

When these policies are announced, we’re all rightly appalled at the immediate headlines. Then, even before the next news cycle, we’re on to the next atrocity before the last one even has time to dry. Outrage fatigue sets in, and we can’t keep up.

But the toxic effects of these policies, while easily predicted, tend to happen in slow motion, and over time. Often, they’re not even perceptible, except through statistics. When the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics was fired last month for publishing employment numbers that reflected reality, as opposed to Trump’s fantasies, it was clearly a ripple effect of terrible policies, and Trump didn’t like it at all.

Whether they ripple through the economy, the environment, the legal system, the healthcare industry, the education sector, or the bureaucracies of the federal agencies, ripple effects tend to be significant and, often enough, massive.

Let’s take, just as a pertinent example, the tourist industry. Officially called the Travel and Tourism sector, the statistical tale being told about the effects of Trumpian policies is more than enough for Trump to want to fire whoever is collecting those numbers.

Happily, the numbers were collected by the industry, not the government, and they’re as bleak as we thought they’d be. The U.S. is expected to lose $12.5 billion in visitor spending this year, a 22.5% decline. The tourism sector represents over three percent of GDP, but the ripple effects could make it three times that, at least. This is not chump change. It’s a good-sized chunk of our economy.

But the larger message in those numbers is more disturbing than mere financial loss: The rest of the world is giving us the finger.

They’re telling us they had no vote in these disruptive policies, but that they’re the ones whose lives are being disrupted by them. They’re telling us that Trump’s xenophobia, his demolition of the foreign aid community, and especially his spectacularly stupid tariffs are hurting their countries while helping no one.  

Now he’s imposed a $250 “visa integrity fee” that will specifically affect travelers from Mexico, China, Brazil, and India. You can imagine how well this is going down, just in time for the World Cup next summer.

It’s almost as if Trump were trying to push people away. And when I say Trump, I really mean the junta, the people pulling the strings, whoever they are. Trump seems more a metaphor than a real thing these days, so it would be interesting to know the thinking, if you can call it that, of his inner circle. They seem determined to tank our entire economy, while pretending they don’t know any better. You have to wonder if it’s just stupidity, or something far darker.

Of course, anti-American sentiment is nothing new. We’ve given the world plenty to worry about over the years. We’ve committed heinous crimes and done more than our share of damage — economic, environmental, and political — all over the world. We’ve created resentments that go back many decades.

But there has never been the feeling that Americans themselves were being held accountable for the idiocies of their government. Visitors have always been happy to come here, spend their money here, and have a good time on our shores.

But now, people all over the world are deciding to spend their money anywhere but here.

The costs of this disenchantment are likely to be substantial and chronic. When tourists stay away, the ripples run up and down the global supply chain, affecting airlines, hotels, rental companies, restaurants, stores, museums, arenas, stadiums, theaters, and any other attractions you can think of. Many of these businesses operate on thin margins to begin with. And the tariffs are bludgeoning them, too, pushing up their costs, making a small drop in orders doubly painful. Many will need to lay off employees. Many will go out of business.

Go further down the supply chain, and you hit the companies that sell fuel to the airlines, linen to the hotels, and meat to the restaurants. When those orders dry up, so do jobs, pay scales, services, and the tax bases of local economies.

Speaking of which, there are hundreds of tourist towns, all over the country, that depend on foreign visitors to keep their local economies afloat. A lot of them are in warm climates, which is to say in red states. Most of them voted, and in overwhelming numbers, for the guy who imposed the tariffs that killed the market for their services.

Now, with tourist dollars not coming in, their gift shops, concession stands, restaurants, Uber drivers, tour guides, and entertainers will be under new stress. And once tourists find other places to travel — places where they feel more comfortable and welcome — there’s no guarantee those towns will ever recover.

The tourist industry is labor-intensive, and when tourists stay away, lots of jobs are at risk. The uncertainty of local economies affects everyone, even those not directly involved in the tourist trade. Even those who keep their jobs won’t be buying a new car or a first home any time soon. They probably won’t be dining out much either. And so it ripples.

My father fought in the air war against Germany when he was twenty years old, and he bore a grudge against Germany for the rest of his life. This was not at all like him. An intelligent and sophisticated thinker, he knew the grudge wasn’t rational — that there was much to admire in post-war Germany — but he held it anyway. He vowed never to visit Germany, and he never did.

There are right now millions, perhaps billions, of people around the world cultivating the same sort of grudge. It will include, no doubt, a great many white Christian Europeans who are, one way or another, being traumatized by Trump. They are rightly appalled, both at him and at the America that elected him. And they might not want to see us again.

It serves us right.